| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.5% | 28% | 25¢ | 27¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Above 2.4% | 56% | 55¢ | 56¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Above 2.6% | 12% | 7¢ | 8¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Above 2.3% | 92% | 92¢ | 94¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Above 2.7% | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Above 2.8% | 4% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Above 2.9% | 3% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Above 2.1% | 99% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $440 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0% | 8% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $375 | Trade → |
| Above 3.3% | 4% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $258 | Trade → |
| Above 3.5% | 6% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $245 | Trade → |
| Above 3.1% | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $216 | Trade → |
| Above 3.2% | 6% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $152 | Trade → |
| Above 2.2% | 94% | 96¢ | 100¢ | — | $131 | Trade → |
| Above 3.4% | 4% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $100 | Trade → |
This market asks what the year-over-year change in core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be for February 2026. Core CPI excluding food and energy is closely watched because it signals underlying inflation trends that influence monetary policy and financial markets.
Core CPI YoY is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is a standard gauge of trimmed inflation that filters volatile food and energy items. Markets, policymakers, and forecasters track core CPI to assess whether inflation is broad-based or driven by temporary shocks; past readings and intervening data flow into expectations for the February 2026 number.
Prediction market prices reflect the aggregate expectations of participants about which outcome bucket will match the official BLS figure; they move as new information arrives but are not guarantees of the final published number.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the official CPI report; the core CPI YoY for February 2026 will appear in the BLS monthly CPI release, which is typically scheduled for the middle of the following month. Check the BLS release calendar for the exact date.
Each of the 15 outcomes corresponds to a specific numerical range or bucket for the core CPI YoY value for February 2026 as defined on the market page. The event description lists the exact boundaries and rules for which bucket wins at settlement.
Kalshi will use the official BLS-published core CPI YoY for February 2026 according to the market’s settlement rules. Any guidance on handling revisions, timing, or tie-breaking is detailed in the market’s terms and the Kalshi settlement policy.
Watch prior-month CPI components, producer price index (PPI), monthly employment and wage reports, retail sales, housing/shelter reports, and notable supply or demand shocks (e.g., major commodity moves) because these releases tend to move expectations for the upcoming core CPI print.
The BLS is the official data provider; central bank communications and actions (Federal Reserve) shape macro expectations; large macroeconomic data providers, economists, market-makers, and active Kalshi traders all influence market prices through forecasts, trades, and interpretation of incoming data.