| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the U.S. core consumer price index (CPI) year‑over‑year for April 2026 will be reported, excluding food and energy; it matters because core inflation is a key gauge of underlying price pressures that influence monetary policy and financial markets.
Core CPI strips the volatile food and energy components to highlight persistent inflation trends such as services and shelter costs. Movements in core inflation shape Federal Reserve decisions, bond yields, corporate pricing, and wage negotiations, and are monitored alongside other monthly indicators and seasonal adjustments. Historical month‑to‑month variation and occasional statistical revisions mean market expectations can shift quickly as new data arrive.
Market prices on this event represent the collective, real‑time expectations of traders about the April 2026 core CPI YoY outcome and will update as new information becomes available; liquidity, the number of active participants, and the market’s closing rules all affect how informative those prices are.
Settlement follows the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release of the CPI for April 2026; the official seasonally adjusted core CPI YoY figure published by the BLS is used to determine the winning outcome. Check the market page for the exact settlement timetable and any time‑zone conventions.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issues the monthly CPI report that contains the core CPI year‑over‑year figure; the market settles to that BLS‑published value for April 2026.
The market divides possible reported values into 15 discrete outcome buckets or ranges; before trading, review the market's outcome definitions, settlement rules, and the current liquidity/volume information on the market page so you understand which bucket corresponds to different reported values.
Key movers include monthly labor market data, producer prices, retail sales, regional shelter/rent indicators, major commodity or supply disruptions, and any Fed communications that change inflation expectations—all can prompt traders to revise their views on the April core CPI reading.
Treat the market as a complementary, real‑time summary of trader expectations: combine it with official data, econometric models, and policy statements to form a fuller view, and always account for market liquidity, potential information asymmetries, and the market’s settlement rules.