| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether an existing indictment related to James Comey will be reinstated by an appellate court before 2027. Appellate reinstatement would meaningfully change the legal posture of the case and carry political and procedural consequences.
James Comey is a former FBI director who has been a public figure in high‑profile investigations and controversies; legal actions involving prominent officials can produce complex sequences of charging, dismissal, appeal, and potential reinstatement. Reinstatement on appeal means an appellate court reverses or vacates a lower-court dismissal and restores criminal charges, often sending the case back to the trial court.
Market prices reflect the collective, continuously updated assessment of whether an appellate court order restoring the indictment will occur before 2027; prices move as filings, rulings, schedules, and public information change and are not legal determinations.
For this market, a reinstatement counts when an appellate court issues an order reversing or vacating a lower-court dismissal and restores the indictment so that the charges are again formally pending; administrative or clerical actions that do not reflect a court ruling do not qualify.
The relevant appellate tribunal depends on whether the case is in federal or state court: an intermediate federal circuit court or a state intermediate appellate court could issue a reinstating order; a U.S. Supreme Court or state supreme court decision that reinstates would also qualify if it issues before 2027.
Watch for notices of appeal, docketed appellate briefs, requests for expedited consideration, oral argument notices, panel rulings and opinions, en banc rehearing petitions, and any emergency motions to stay or vacate dismissals—each step provides new information about the pace and direction of the appeal.
No. This market specifically asks about reinstatement 'on appeal'; a voluntary refiling by prosecutors (or filing in a different jurisdiction) is not the same as an appellate court restoring a previously dismissed indictment and therefore would not satisfy the event.
Yes—if an appellate court issues a reinstating order before the 2027 cutoff, that action meets the condition for this market even if parties later seek further review; the market is concerned with whether reinstatement occurs before the deadline, not with subsequent appellate outcomes.