| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Cepeda Castro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Abelardo de la Espriella | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Paloma Valencia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daniel Quintero | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sergio Fajardo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which candidate will be declared the winner of the Colombian presidential election first round; the first-round outcome determines whether the election is decided outright or advances to a runoff and signals early voter preferences.
Colombian presidential contests typically feature multiple candidates from across the political spectrum; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority in the first round, the top two finishers proceed to a runoff. Longstanding issues such as the economy, security and the peace process, migration, and regional cleavages shape voter choices and the distribution of support in the first round.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and trades into a collective signal about which candidate the market expects to be the first-round plurality winner; price movements reflect new information like polls, endorsements, campaign events, or official news. They indicate relative market sentiment rather than exact vote shares.
The winner is the candidate officially certified by Colombia's electoral authorities as having received the most valid votes in the first-round ballot; the market resolves to the outcome label that matches the official certification and settlement follows the platform's published rules.
No—this market is explicitly about the first-round winner only; whether a runoff occurs is determined by electoral rules, but settlement of this market will be based solely on the officially certified first-round result.
Settlement relies on official certification by Colombia's electoral authority; if the result is contested or delayed, the market will wait for the legally binding outcome and follow the platform's dispute and resolution procedures before settling.
Official vote counts and certifications from Colombia's recognized electoral authorities (for example, the Registraduría Nacional or equivalent legally designated bodies) and any legally binding adjudications are the authoritative sources for settlement, consistent with the market's rules.
If a candidate withdraws or is disqualified prior to the official vote and the market's outcome labels no longer reflect the actual ballot, the platform will apply its amendment or resolution policies—typically providing notices, adjusting listings where appropriate, or resolving according to official events; check the platform for any market-specific updates.