| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the officially reported China unemployment rate for March 2026, a key indicator of labor-market health that influences consumer demand, policy decisions, and financial market sentiment. Traders monitor it because shifts in employment can signal broader changes in economic momentum and guide monetary and fiscal responses.
China publishes multiple unemployment-related series, and the headline rate is often used by policymakers and analysts to assess urban labor-market conditions amid structural shifts in growth, demographics, and the property sector. March data are particularly watched because they follow Lunar New Year seasonal effects and the early-year restart of business activity, which can cause short-term volatility in monthly readings.
Prediction market prices reflect collective expectations about the official reported figure and will move as new economic releases, policy announcements, and news arrive; they represent a dynamic consensus view rather than an official forecast or guaranteed outcome.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is the usual source of China's official monthly unemployment indicators; monthly labor figures are typically published in the weeks following the covered month (often around mid-month), but the exact release date will be set by the NBS and should be confirmed on the contract page.
The contract description on the event page specifies the settling series; many markets use the NBS surveyed urban unemployment rate, but if this market uses a different series or adjustment, that detail will appear in the event rules and settlement criteria.
Related monthly indicators such as industrial output, retail sales, services PMIs, property-sector reports, major policy announcements (central or local employment programs), and any unexpected economic shocks or survey-methodology notices can all shift expectations and market prices.
Lunar New Year can cause short-term shifts in employment and survey responses due to factory shutdowns, migrant-worker movement, and temporary layoffs; whether the published series is seasonally adjusted or not matters for interpretation, so check the settlement series and any seasonal-adjustment notes in the official release.
Headline urban unemployment can be especially sensitive to youth (typically 16–24) unemployment and uneven regional labor conditions; traders should review subgroup breakdowns and regional data in the NBS release (if provided) because those details can explain or predict deviations in the headline number.