| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders express expectations about the official China unemployment rate for February 2026; the outcome is closely watched because it signals labor‑market strength and influences policy and financial markets.
China's monthly headline unemployment figure is published by the National Bureau of Statistics and is based on a surveyed urban unemployment rate. February readings are frequently affected by Lunar New Year timing, seasonal hiring patterns, the state of export manufacturing, and ongoing developments in the property and service sectors.
Market prices reflect participants' aggregated, real‑time expectations about which outcome will be realized; treat them as evolving signals that respond to new data, policy announcements, and economic shocks rather than fixed forecasts.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publishes the monthly surveyed urban unemployment rate, typically around mid‑month after the reference month; the exact release date is set by NBS and should be checked on their release calendar.
This market references the NBS's official surveyed urban unemployment rate (the standard headline series derived from household surveys), not administrative registries or alternate private measures.
Expect stronger seasonal distortions in February due to holiday migration and temporary employment changes; compare both raw and seasonally adjusted series and consider month‑to‑month and seasonal contexts rather than treating a single monthly move as definitive.
Surprises can stem from sudden fiscal or monetary policy shifts, a sharp swing in export demand, large layoffs in major employers or sectors (e.g., property developers), or an unexpected rebound or slump in service‑sector hiring.
This market offers 10 discrete outcomes and will settle based on the official NBS release for February 2026 according to Kalshi's rulebook; consult Kalshi for the exact outcome ranges, settlement timing, and any tie/rounding rules.