| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| By 2030 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether China will surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy by 2030. The question matters because the timing of such a shift would reshape global trade, finance, and geopolitics.
China has experienced rapid growth over recent decades and already leads on some measures (such as GDP at purchasing-power-parity), while the U.S. remains larger on most nominal measures and in per-capita output. Forecasts diverge widely because outcomes depend on growth trajectories, exchange rates, and statistical definitions of GDP.
Market prices aggregate participants’ expectations and react to new data and events; they are not forecasts guaranteed to occur. To know the precise settlement rule for this contract (what measure of 'economy' and which data source or date will be used), consult the contract text on the platform.
The contract’s settlement clause specifies the exact measure (for example, nominal GDP in USD versus GDP (PPP)) and the official data source; consult the contract text on the platform to see which series and agency are used for resolution.
‘By 2030’ can mean different things depending on the contract (end of calendar year 2030, 2030 annual totals, or a specified report date). Check the event’s resolution rules to see whether the market uses a particular report release, calendar cutoff, or published estimate.
Major GDP releases from China and the U.S., annual revisions by national statistical agencies, IMF and World Bank updates, and large fiscal or monetary policy announcements are the primary data/events that tend to move expectations.
That depends on the contract’s resolution rule: some contracts settle on the first official published value for a period, others allow later revised series. The contract text will state whether post-publication revisions affect settlement.
Sustained stronger-than-expected productivity growth in China, continued high investment and technology adoption, a persistent depreciation of the dollar versus the renminbi, or a significant economic shock that substantially weakens U.S. growth could each materially alter the timeline.