| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $19.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $19.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $19.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $19.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $20.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $20.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $20.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $20.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $20.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $21.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $21.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $21.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $21.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $21.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $22.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $22.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which nominal GDP value China will report for calendar year 2026 on KALSHI. It matters because nominal GDP captures both output and price changes and influences fiscal, monetary, and investment decisions.
China experienced decades of rapid expansion followed by a moderation of growth rates in the 2010s and early 2020s; recent dynamics have been shaped by post‑pandemic reopening, property-sector adjustments, and shifts in global demand. Nominal GDP outcomes are affected not only by real economic activity but also by inflation, exchange‑rate moves, and occasional statistical revisions.
Prediction market odds aggregate traders' views about which outcome will be realized and update as new information arrives. Interpret them as relative market support for outcomes, not as guarantees, and consult the market page for the exact settlement rules and data source.
Resolution depends on the market's rulebook; typically the outcome is based on the official annual nominal GDP for calendar year 2026 as published by the designated reporting agency (commonly the National Bureau of Statistics of China). Traders should check the KALSHI market page for the exact named data source, currency denomination, and rounding or aggregation rules.
The market will resolve after the official publication and any platform-specified verification period; because 'Closes' is currently TBD, consult the KALSHI market page for the announced resolution date and any waiting window before settlement.
Nominal GDP reflects both the quantity of goods and services produced (real growth) and the prices at which they are sold (inflation). Strong inflation can lift nominal GDP even if real growth is weak, while deflation can suppress nominal GDP despite positive real activity.
If outcomes are denominated in USD, conversion at prevailing exchange rates matters: a weaker RMB lowers dollar‑denominated nominal GDP independently of domestic output and prices. Verify the currency denomination on the KALSHI market page to understand exchange‑rate exposure.
Yes—post-publication revisions or methodological changes by the designated reporting agency can alter the published nominal GDP figure. The market's rules typically specify whether provisional or final figures are used and how revisions are treated, so review the settlement policy on the market page.