| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official year-over-year growth rate of China's Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter of 2026. As the world's second-largest economy, China's quarterly growth serves as a critical indicator for global supply chains, commodity demand, and macroeconomic stability.
The Chinese economy has recently transitioned from a period of high-speed expansion to a focus on 'high-quality development' and structural rebalancing. Policymakers are currently managing significant headwinds, including property sector deleveraging, domestic consumption shifts, and evolving international trade relations. These factors make quarterly GDP figures essential barometers for the success of China’s fiscal and monetary interventions.
Market prices represent the collective outlook of participants regarding the future state of the Chinese economy, incorporating data from analysts, institutional reports, and government guidance.
The official year-over-year GDP growth rate as released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for Q2 2026.
This market relies on the initial official reading provided by the NBS; subsequent historical revisions are generally not applied retroactively to the market outcome.
While YoY growth compares the quarter to the same period in the prior year, Q2 often reflects the momentum of spring construction and manufacturing cycles relative to the start of the year.
Unexpected shocks, such as commodity price volatility, significant shifts in global interest rates, or geopolitical trade developments, can rapidly alter the trajectory of China's export-oriented manufacturing sector.
The National Bureau of Statistics typically releases quarterly GDP figures in mid-July following the conclusion of the quarter.