| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike more than 50bp | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25 basis points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintain current rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 50 basis points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25 basis points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 50 basis points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut more than 50bp | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which interest-rate decision the Central Bank of Brazil (COPOM) will announce at its March meeting; that decision matters because it directly influences borrowing costs, exchange rates, and financial-market conditions in Brazil.
COPOM sets the SELIC policy rate at regularly scheduled meetings and uses an inflation-targeting framework to guide decisions. Markets form expectations based on recent inflation data, growth indicators, fiscal policy signals, and central-bank communication; past cycles show the committee responds to both domestic developments and global financial conditions.
Market prices aggregate traders' views on which of the seven discrete policy-outcome scenarios will occur and update as new information arrives; interpret prices as a real-time signal of market consensus, not a guarantee of the final decision.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific policy-rate scenario or discrete change the market will use for settlement once COPOM publishes the official SELIC decision for March; check the market's outcome labels to see whether they represent exact rate levels or move increments.
The Central Bank of Brazil's COPOM officially announces the SELIC decision at the end of its meeting and publishes a statement and rate announcement; this market will reference that official publication for settlement, and exact close/settlement times are posted on the market page (Closes: TBD).
Material drivers include most-recent inflation reports (headline and core), activity data (GDP or industrial output), employment figures, key fiscal announcements, and any unexpected global risk events or central-bank communications that change the growth/inflation outlook.
Prices typically adjust immediately after the official announcement; final settlement is based on the Central Bank's published SELIC decision according to the platform's settlement rules, so consult the market's settlement schedule for exact timing.
Governor speeches and minutes convey the committee's assessment of inflation and growth risks and can shift expectations about both the March outcome and the future path of policy, causing traders to reprice which of the seven outcomes they view as most likely.