| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25 basis points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 50 basis points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut more than 50bp | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike more than 50bp | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25 basis points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 50 basis points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market captures expectations about the Central Bank of Brazil's monetary policy decision at its April meeting; the outcome sets the official Selic policy stance that influences borrowing costs, inflation dynamics, and financial markets in Brazil.
The Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) at Banco Central do Brasil meets on a regular schedule to decide the policy rate; the April meeting is one of the year's scheduled decisions and is closely watched for guidance on the policy path. Domestic inflation trends, fiscal developments, exchange-rate moves, and global monetary conditions provide the backdrop for the committee's deliberations.
Prediction market prices aggregate traders' views and update as new data and communications arrive; use them as a real-time snapshot of market-implied expectations while consulting official Central Bank communications and the event's settlement rules for final outcome definitions.
The decision is announced on the date of the Copom meeting scheduled for April; the official announcement occurs at the end of the meeting and is followed by published minutes and, in many cases, a press conference. This market's trading timeline (opening, intraday updates, and settlement) is determined by the event page and the Central Bank's calendar, so check the event page and the Banco Central do Brasil calendar for the exact announcement day and any market cutoffs.
The seven outcomes map to discrete, predefined policy-outcome categories (for example specific Selic target levels or categorized rate-move outcomes) as described in the event's rules. Consult the event description and settlement terms to see how each outcome corresponds to the Central Bank's announced rate or wording.
The Copom members who vote on the policy rate, the Central Bank Governor through speeches and the post‑meeting press conference, and official data providers (such as IBGE and FGV) are primary influences; fiscal authorities and major market participants also shape the backdrop through policy signals and market flows.
Key releases include the monthly and quarterly inflation figures (headline IPCA and core measures), activity indicators (industrial production, retail sales, GDP partials), employment data, and any fiscal updates or budgetary announcements—these publications can materially change the policy outlook reflected in the market.
The official announced policy rate at the meeting is the primary determinant for settlement as defined by the event rules; the decision statement, minutes, and press conference provide context about the committee's reaction function and likely future moves, which traders use to reassess positions but do not change the already‑announced outcome for that meeting.