| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 6.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which unemployment-rate bucket Statistics Canada will report for Canada in February 2026. It matters because the unemployment rate is a timely indicator of labour-market health and influences policy, markets, and business decisions.
The Canadian unemployment rate is published monthly by Statistics Canada from the Labour Force Survey and has been sensitive to post‑pandemic recovery patterns, monetary policy shifts, and commodity-price swings. By February 2026, ongoing influences include monetary policy stance, economic growth momentum, sectoral hiring (notably energy, services, and construction), and immigration-driven labour supply changes.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations about which outcome will be reported and update as new data and news arrive. Treat prices as a summary of current information, not a guarantee; they can move quickly in response to key releases or events.
The official figure is published by Statistics Canada in its Labour Force Survey release for February 2026, typically in the first days of March; this market resolves based on that official release (see the contract page for the exact resolution rule and any platform timing).
Resolution is based on the unemployment rate as reported by Statistics Canada for the February 2026 Labour Force Survey; the market uses the published statistic specified in the contract’s resolution source.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive unemployment-rate bucket or threshold defined on the market page; review the market’s outcome list to see the exact ranges and how an observed unemployment rate maps to one outcome.
Examine recent monthly Labour Force Survey releases (employment changes by industry, participation rate), short‑run GDP and retail data, recent Bank of Canada communications, and any sectoral announcements or large labour actions that could shift month‑to‑month readings.
Bank of Canada rate decisions and guidance, major GDP or jobs-related data points, large corporate hiring or layoff news, immigration or labour‑policy changes, commodity-price shocks, and unexpected weather or disaster events that affect employment can all trigger price moves.