| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.1 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.3 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.5 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.7 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.9 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.1 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which reported nominal GDP value Canada will register for the 2026 calendar year; it matters because nominal GDP reflects the size of the economy in current prices and guides fiscal planning, debt metrics, and market expectations.
Nominal GDP combines real output and the prevailing price level, so changes can reflect growth, inflation, or both. Recent Canadian nominal GDP has been shaped by commodity price swings, monetary policy and inflation dynamics, fiscal decisions, and global demand conditions.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about the official 2026 nominal GDP number as defined in the contract terms; interpret prices as the market's consensus view across the available outcome ranges, not as certainties.
It refers to the total market value of goods and services produced in Canada measured in current prices for the 2026 calendar year, settled to the official data series specified in the market's contract terms (typically Statistics Canada).
Settlement follows the market's published rules and uses the designated official source and data series; the market will settle to the single outcome that contains the officially released 2026 nominal GDP figure, with timing determined by the release and any specified revision or settlement window in the contract.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined nominal GDP range or discrete value listed on the market page; the outcome that matches the official reported figure for 2026 is the winning outcome at settlement.
Quarterly and monthly GDP reports, inflation (CPI) releases, labour and consumption data, major commodity-price moves, Bank of Canada decisions and communications, and large federal fiscal announcements are the primary information flows that tend to shift expectations for nominal GDP.
Historical swings in nominal GDP have often followed commodity price shocks, inflationary episodes, significant policy shifts, or global demand changes; traders usually look at those precedents to assess how similar drivers could affect the 2026 outcome while accounting for structural and cyclical differences.