| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Fryday | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Janelle Kellman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fiona Ma | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Oliver Ma | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tim Myers | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michael Tubbs | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| David Fennell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gloria Romero | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brian Dahle | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be elected California Lieutenant Governor, a statewide constitutional office. The outcome matters because the lieutenant governor can influence statewide boards, higher education governance, and serve as acting governor when the governor is absent.
The lieutenant governor is elected statewide in California under the state's election calendar, which typically includes a top-two primary followed by a general election. The office has previously been a springboard for higher office and is elected separately from the governor, so party control can differ between those positions.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and react to news, but they are not guarantees; they change as new data arrives. With a modest total trading volume reported for this market, price signals may be more volatile and should be interpreted alongside fundamentals and official electoral timelines.
The market will settle according to the platform's event rules, which typically use the officially certified winner of the California lieutenant governor election as declared by the California Secretary of State following canvass and certification of ballots.
This market is framed around the office winner; because California uses a top-two primary system, primary results determine which two candidates appear on the general election ballot, and the certified winner of the general election ultimately resolves the market.
Certification includes all valid ballots counted in the official canvass: in-person votes, mail ballots, provisional ballots that are validated, and any legally required recounts or post-election adjustments before the Secretary of State certifies the result.
The effect depends on the market's specific rules; generally, markets resolve to the outcome specified in the event description (commonly the winner of the scheduled election). If an interim appointment, recall, or special election changes who holds the office before resolution, the platform will follow its stated settlement criteria and public updates.
A market with many outcomes and modest trading volume can spread liquidity thinly across choices, making prices more sensitive to individual trades and news. Use prices as one input and cross-check with candidate fundamentals, polling, fundraising, and official electoral timelines.