| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to beat: $68,733.50 | 56% | 56¢ | 57¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
This market offers a short-term bet on whether Bitcoin's price will be higher or lower over a specific 15-minute interval; it matters because very short horizons capture microstructure moves that matter to scalpers, algorithmic traders, and event-driven participants.
Bitcoin is a highly liquid but volatile asset; 15-minute windows often react to order-book imbalances, large single trades, and immediate news or data releases. Markets like this are designed to isolate very short-term directional moves rather than longer-term trends, and outcomes can be dominated by liquidity, leverage, and execution dynamics.
Market odds reflect the aggregated positions and risk appetite of participants at any moment and update in real time; for a 15-minute horizon, odds are especially sensitive to current order flow, liquidity, and trading strategies rather than macro fundamentals.
Resolution compares the reference BTC price at the market's defined start timestamp and at the end of the 15-minute interval using the price source specified in the market rules; consult the market page for the exact price feed and timestamps used to determine 'Up' versus 'Down.'
If the market lists 'Closes: TBD', KALSHI will publish the official start and end times on the event page; the measurement begins at the market's official start time (usually the listed open or trigger time) and runs for 15 consecutive minutes from that point.
Yes — because the window is short, one or a few large orders or cascading liquidations on spot or derivatives venues can produce abrupt moves that determine the outcome; participants should consider market depth and potential liquidity shocks.
Resolution follows the market's official rules; if the designated price source is unavailable or shows anomalous behavior, KALSHI's stated settlement and dispute procedures (on the event page) describe how they will determine a valid settlement price or whether alternative sources will be used.
On very short horizons, fees, slippage, order type (market vs limit), execution latency, and trade size relative to market depth all materially affect realized performance; smaller sizes, limit orders, and awareness of bid-ask spread can reduce adverse execution risk.