| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $71,357.29 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Bitcoin will meet the $71,357.29 price condition during a specified 15-minute measurement window; it matters because short, intraday moves to round-number targets can drive trading and hedging activity.
Short-interval (15-minute) markets focus on intraday volatility rather than longer-term trends; Bitcoin routinely experiences rapid moves driven by liquidity, news, and derivatives activity. The market's settlement specifics (exact feed, snapshot rules, and resolution timestamp) are set by the event host and determine how an intraday price move is judged.
Market odds represent the trading market's aggregated view of whether Bitcoin will satisfy the event's 15-minute price condition before resolution; they update continuously as new information and orders enter the market.
Resolution follows the event's official rules on the hosting platform: the outcome depends on the price behavior during the defined 15-minute measurement and the platform's chosen price feed; the exact resolution timestamp and settlement methodology are published on the KALSHI event page and determine when the market closes and settles.
The required condition (continuous hold versus a single timestamp or any tick within the 15 minutes) is specified in the event's settlement rules; check the KALSHI event description for whether the trigger is a snapshot, an any-time hit, or a sustained price.
KALSHI defines the official settlement index or exchange list for each market; the event page and platform rulebook list the reference feed(s) used for this market's price determination.
Look at historical intraday volatility and the frequency of 15-minute price moves of similar magnitude on the chosen reference feed; examine recent sessions for comparable spikes, but remember past intraday behavior is only one input and conditions can change rapidly.
Rapid moves typically come from surprise macro news, major on-chain transfers or exchange flows, concentrated derivative liquidations, exchange outages or halts, and large single orders or order-book imbalances around low-liquidity periods.