| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $71,230.50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Bitcoin's spot price will reach $71,230.50 during a single 15-minute observation window. Short-window targets matter because they capture sudden intraday moves that longer-term bets can miss.
Bitcoin is a globally traded, liquid but volatile asset whose price reacts quickly to order flow, macro headlines, and on-chain activity. A 15-minute resolution emphasizes transient spikes, flash crashes, and liquidity dynamics rather than sustained trends. This specific contract is offered on KALSHI and will resolve according to its published settlement rules.
Prediction-market odds represent the collective market view of whether the 15-minute target will be met and can change rapidly as new information arrives. For short-interval targets, odds are especially sensitive to real-time order-flow and news.
The outcome is determined by whether Bitcoin's official spot price equals or exceeds $71,230.50 at any point within the single 15-minute observation interval as defined by KALSHI's market rules; consult the market's rulebook for exact timestamping and bar construction.
TBD indicates KALSHI has not yet published final open/close times for this contract; the market page and KALSHI announcements will post the trading window and the scheduled resolution interval when they are set.
KALSHI uses the specific price feed or consolidated exchange source stated in the market's terms; the market documentation lists the designated contributors and how minute-level prices are constructed for settlement.
Common drivers include aggressive market orders or block trades, sudden headlines or regulatory developments, derivative liquidations that cascade across venues, and periods of thin liquidity where even modest flows produce large price moves.
Assess order-book depth and recent spreads on the exchange(s) used for settlement and be mindful of regional session overlaps and scheduled macro events; targets are more vulnerable to brief breaches during low-liquidity periods or around major news releases.