| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $71,135.24 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Bitcoin will reach the price level $71,135.24 during a specific 15-minute observation period. It matters because short, sharp moves can produce outsized trading and hedging outcomes for traders who focus on intraday targets.
Bitcoin is subject to high intraday volatility driven by liquidity, macro news, and activity in derivatives markets; short-window questions like this capture that volatility rather than longer-term trend direction. Historical context: BTC has experienced rapid 15-minute moves driven by large orders, leverage cascades, and major headlines, so outcomes often hinge on transient market events. Because the contract closes are listed as TBD, timeline and settlement details will be specified on the market page before resolution.
Market prices on this event reflect the crowd’s evolving assessment of whether that 15-minute price condition will be met; they update as new information arrives and are best interpreted as a real-time consensus rather than a guarantee.
Resolution depends on the contract’s settlement rules: the market will use the platform’s specified price feed and a defined 15-minute observation window—check the event page for the exact feed and the rule that determines whether any trade, quote, or aggregated timestamp qualifies.
The precise start and end times for the 15-minute window are set by the market’s settlement schedule on the event page; because the market closes are TBD, you should monitor the event details for the confirmed timing prior to resolution.
KALSHI will specify the reference price feed or exchange in the event’s settlement terms; consult the market description to see whether settlement uses a single exchange ticker, an aggregated index, or another official source.
That depends on the contract’s definition: if settlement is based on any trade or quoted price touching the level during the 15-minute window, brief spikes will count; if settlement uses an average or requires a sustained level, they may not—verify the settlement criteria on the event page.
Catalysts include large block trades or algorithmic executions, sudden derivatives liquidations, major regulatory headlines or macro releases arriving during the window, and sudden shifts in liquidity due to exchange issues or concentrated order flow.