| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $71,094.69 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tests whether Bitcoin will reach the specific price target of $71,094.69 during a single 15-minute observation period. Short-interval markets like this let traders express views about minute-level price action and hedge very near-term exposure.
Bitcoin exhibits high intraday volatility, so outcomes over 15-minute windows are often driven by order flow, liquidity and exchange-specific prints rather than longer-term fundamentals. KALSHI will use a defined price feed and settlement procedure to determine whether the target was reached; those operational details matter as much as market sentiment for this contract. Because the market closes are listed as TBD, timing and settlement parameters should be checked on the platform before trading.
Market odds reflect the aggregate willingness of traders to buy or sell this specific outcome and update quickly as new information arrives; they summarize market pricing and risk, not a fixed forecast. For minute-level targets, odds can swing rapidly in response to trades, news releases, or thin liquidity.
Settlement will follow the contract specifications on the KALSHI platform: a defined price feed and a defined 15-minute observation window will be used. Traders should consult the contract rules for whether settlement uses transaction prints, an index, VWAP, or another measure and which exchange(s) are included.
'15 min' indicates the duration of the observation period during which the reference price will be checked. The exact start and end timestamps, including timezone and whether the window is anchored to clock times or to an event, are specified in the market’s settlement rules on KALSHI; review those details to know when the window will occur.
Whether a brief touch counts depends on the contract’s settlement definition—some contracts count any print at or above the target, others require a specific mid-price or sustained level. Check the market’s official settlement criteria to see which condition applies for this event.
The contract will list the exact price source(s) used for settlement (for example a single exchange feed or an aggregated index). Differences between exchanges and how timestamps are handled can materially affect minute-level outcomes, so confirm the listed data source in the market documentation.
'Closes: TBD' means the market’s close (and possibly the start of the observation window) has not been finalized on the platform yet. Until KALSHI publishes the closing/settlement schedule, the final trading deadline and settlement timing are uncertain; monitor the market page and official notices for updates before entering sizable positions.