| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $70,904.41 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Bitcoin's reference price will reach $70,904.41 within a specified 15-minute measurement window; it matters because minute-scale targets capture short-term liquidity events and trader behavior.
Bitcoin's price can move sharply over very short intervals due to concentrated order flow, derivatives liquidations, or breaking news. Markets that settle on short windows are sensitive to exchange microstructure and chosen price feeds, so outcomes often reflect transient spikes rather than sustained moves.
Platform prices aggregate traders' views about the likelihood of the event and serve as a real-time sentiment indicator; consult the contract's resolution rules to understand the exact measurement and data source that determine settlement.
Resolution is based on whether the market's specified reference price meets the $70,904.41 threshold during the 15-minute measurement window as defined in the contract; check the event's rulebook on KALSHI for the authoritative definition and any tie-breaking conventions.
The official start and close timestamps are set on the trading platform and published with the market; because this listing shows 'Closes: TBD', monitor the market page for the announced window and any updates from KALSHI.
The contract specifies a particular index or set of exchanges and an aggregation method used for the reference price; consult the market's documentation on KALSHI to see which data sources and timestamps are authoritative for resolution.
Large market orders, concentrated stop-loss/limit clusters, rapid derivatives liquidations, sudden news, thin liquidity windows, or exchange data anomalies can produce quick spikes that hit short targets; conversely, balanced liquidity and passive orders can absorb pressure and keep price from crossing the threshold.
Use this market as a short-term sentiment and event-probability signal alongside live spot prices, order-book depth, derivatives metrics (open interest, funding), and real-time news feeds; always verify the contract's resolution mechanics before acting, and account for higher execution risk around minute-scale targets.