| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $70,886.75 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market centers on whether Bitcoin's spot/reference price will reach the level $70,886.75 within a single 15-minute observation period as defined by the Kalshi contract. It matters because minute-scale moves determine settlement and the contract offers a way to trade or hedge very short-term directional risk in BTC.
Bitcoin is a highly liquid but volatile asset where price can move sharply in short timeframes; markets for minute-scale triggers capture that intraday volatility. Contracts that specify a fixed target and a short observation window are sensitive to order flow, exchange liquidity, and the precise price feed or index used for settlement. Traders often use these contracts to express views on imminent catalysts or to manage tail risk around scheduled events.
Market odds on this contract reflect the consensus of traders about whether the target will be met during the stated 15-minute window and will update as new information arrives. Because short-window contracts can be thinly traded, quoted odds may move significantly on relatively small trades and should be read alongside the market’s liquidity and contract terms.
Settlement depends on the contract’s defined reference price: typically a trade or quoted index value at or above the target during the observation window. The platform’s official contract rules state which feed and which types of ticks (trades vs. quotes) are used, so consult the Kalshi settlement specification for the definitive definition.
The start and end timestamps for the contract’s 15-minute window are set by the exchange and published on the event page or in the contract terms; because this event’s close time is listed as TBD, check Kalshi for the scheduled observation interval once it’s posted.
Whether a very brief touch counts depends on the settlement feed and tick granularity specified by the contract. If the official reference shows the target level during the window, that typically qualifies, but confirm via the contract’s settlement rules which data points are considered.
Yes. If Kalshi uses a specific exchange or aggregated index as its reference, prices on other venues can diverge temporarily; such discrepancies can change whether the target appears to have been reached in the official feed, so check which source the contract references.
Zero or very low traded volume indicates limited liquidity and little price discovery so far; quoted odds may be driven by sparse orders and could move sharply when trading begins, so factor in execution risk and the breadth of the order book before taking a position.