| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $70,834.05 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Bitcoin will reach the price level $70,834.05 within a single 15-minute interval as specified by the contract. Short, fixed-duration targets matter because they capture sharp, intraday moves that can affect traders and risk managers.
Bitcoin often exhibits rapid moves over very short timeframes driven by liquidity imbalances, large orders, and news releases; a 15-minute target tests whether one of those episodic moves occurs at this price. The market is listed on KALSHI and will resolve according to KALSHI's published price source, timestamping, and settlement rules, so consult the official contract text for precise mechanics.
Market odds reflect the aggregated beliefs of participants about the likelihood of a qualifying 15-minute print at $70,834.05 and will update as new information arrives. They are a snapshot of market sentiment, not a guarantee of outcome.
Resolution follows the contract's precise definitions on KALSHI: the platform specifies the exact 15-minute bar timing and the canonical price feed or exchange index used for settlement. Check the market's contract details on KALSHI for the authoritative source and timestamping rules.
Whether any intrabar trade/quote or only a bar-close is counted depends on the contract's resolution criteria. The contract text on KALSHI will state whether a single trade/quote at that price qualifies or if a specific aggregation (e.g., bar close or index value) is required.
If the contract requires 'any' qualifying 15-minute interval, a single qualifying interval is typically sufficient for the market to resolve in favor of that outcome; if the contract is tied to a specific window or set of windows the rules differ. Refer to the market text for whether the condition is fulfilled by any one occurrence or only by a particular interval.
The market's close time is listed as TBD on the page; KALSHI will publish the official close time and the timeline for settlement. Final resolution occurs after the relevant 15-minute interval completes and according to KALSHI's published settlement and reporting schedule.
Study historical 15-minute range distributions, recent intraday volatility around the $70k–$71k area, order-book snapshots at that price, and past instances where similar-size levels were reached in short windows. Also review recent news events that produced comparable 15-minute spikes to understand catalysts and timing patterns.