| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $70,800.05 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Bitcoin will trade at or above $70,800.05 during a single 15-minute interval; it matters because short, sharp moves around round-number targets can trigger trading strategies and liquidation cascades.
Bitcoin is known for intraday volatility, making short-interval proposition markets a way for traders to express views on immediate price action rather than longer-term direction. The market is hosted on KALSHI and currently lists a single outcome with the close time listed as TBD, so participants should watch the platform for settlement rules and any timetable updates.
Market prices aggregate participants' views about whether that specific price condition will occur in a 15-minute window; movement in the market price reflects new information, order flow, and changing risk appetite rather than a fixed measure of truth.
The market outcome is determined by the platform's specified settlement window: a contiguous 15-minute period defined by the market's official timing and data feed. Consult the KALSHI market rules or settlement documentation for the authoritative start and end timestamps and the data source used.
If the official reference price or ticks that the market uses reach or exceed $70,800.05 at any point during the defined 15-minute window, the condition is typically considered met; check the market's settlement criteria for whether intraminute ticks or aggregated prices govern resolution.
KALSHI resolves markets using the data source stated in the market terms—often a composite index or a set of major spot exchanges. The exact list and prioritization are specified on the market page or in the platform's settlement policy; verify there to understand which feeds matter.
'Closes: TBD' means a final trading cutoff hasn't been announced; trading may remain open until the platform sets a close time. Participants should monitor the market page for any updates, as the close time and official settlement interval determine when exposure is locked in and when the outcome will be evaluated.
Bitcoin has a history of rapid intraday jumps and drops that have reached significant price thresholds within short windows, often around major news or liquidity events. That historical behavior shows such an outcome is plausible under the right catalysts, but past occurrences are not a guarantee for this specific 15-minute window.