| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $70,730.25 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Bitcoin will reach a specified price level within a defined 15-minute window. Short-window price targets matter because they isolate very near-term drivers and are sensitive to liquidity, order flow, and minute-level news events.
Bitcoin is a highly liquid but frequently volatile global asset whose price can move sharply on short time scales due to news, order-book imbalances, and derivatives liquidations. Markets that resolve to minute-precision capture those microstructure effects rather than longer-term fundamentals. This specific market is listed on KALSHI and currently has an open close date (TBD), so settlement mechanics and the exact interval will be governed by the platform's stated rules.
Prediction market prices reflect the collected market view about whether the target will be met in the stated interval; interpret them as a real-time summary of participants' expectations and risk assessments, not as fixed forecasts.
The platform's official resolution rules specify the start and end timestamps and how the 15-minute window is determined; consult those rules for the authoritative definition since markets vary in whether they use fixed clock intervals, a named interval tied to a close time, or the first matching 15-minute block after a trigger.
KALSHI's market listing and rulebook identify the price source (for example a specific exchange, an external index, or an aggregation); that chosen feed is the sole reference for resolution regardless of other exchange prices.
Treatment of discrepancies and spikes depends on the settlement methodology (instantaneous tick, time-weighted average, median, or filtered feed); the market's resolution procedure explains whether short-lived outliers count or are smoothed/filtered.
A TBD close means the platform has not yet posted a final trading cut-off; trading may remain open until the platform sets a close or announces the scheduled 15-minute interval, and resolution will occur only after that defined interval concludes.
Key risks include high intraminute volatility, execution latency, slippage around the target minute, potential exchange data issues, and the greater influence of single large orders or news items; traders should account for these microstructure and operational risks when participating.