| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $70,728.62 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Bitcoin will reach a price of $70,728.62 within the specified 15-minute condition defined by the event. Outcomes matter for traders who want to express short-term views on intraday BTC price behavior or hedge ultra-short exposure.
Short-interval bets like this focus on minute-level price action rather than multi-day trends; they are sensitive to liquidity, order flow, and time-specific events (news releases, exchange openings/closings). Bitcoin has historically shown episodes of large moves inside single 15-minute candles around macro headlines, large block trades, or liquidity gaps, which makes these contracts driven largely by microstructure and event-timing rather than long-term fundamentals. The event is listed on KALSHI and will settle according to the exchange’s stated data and timing rules.
Market odds on this page summarize collective expectations for the specific 15-minute target but can change quickly as new information arrives. Treat displayed odds as a live indication of current market sentiment and liquidity rather than a fixed forecast; always review the event’s settlement rules to understand exactly what price prints or aggregates determine the outcome.
The event is settled according to the price source and specific rule set listed on the event page; that document will state whether an individual trade, an exchange-specific print, or an aggregated index reaching or exceeding the target constitutes a hit.
The event’s settlement rules define whether the window is rolling or aligned to fixed clock periods and will specify start/stop times and timezone; check those terms for the authoritative interval definition.
A TBD close means the official start or end timing for this contract hasn’t been published yet; traders should wait for the posted schedule before relying on timing-sensitive strategies and monitor the event page for updates.
Many listings include provisions for data outages, outlier filters, or using alternative aggregated indices; the event’s rules will describe fallback procedures and whether suspect prints can be excluded from settlement.
Look at historical 15-minute candles, intraday bid-ask spreads, order-book depth around significant price levels, and past episodes when similar-sized moves occurred — particularly around macro events or large on-chain transfers — to gauge the frequency and drivers of comparable short-term moves.