| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $70,705.69 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Bitcoin will trade at or reach the $70,705.69 level within a specific 15-minute window. It matters because short, discrete price targets capture extreme intraday volatility and can be sensitive to sudden news or liquidity events.
Bitcoin has a history of rapid intraday moves driven by macro news, on-chain flows, and concentrated order flow on exchanges. Markets that focus on very short timeframes and precise price levels are influenced more by exchange microstructure and liquidity than by long-term fundamentals. Traders use these markets to express views on immediate price action or to hedge exposure to short-lived spikes or dips.
Odds in this market summarize how traders collectively view the chance that BTC will hit the specified price during a 15-minute interval; they update continuously as new information arrives and as participants place trades reflecting incoming news, order-flow, and sentiment.
Resolution depends on the market's settlement rules: typically a hit means the designated reference price feed recorded a trade or quoted price at or crossing $70,705.69 during the defined 15-minute interval. Check the event description and KALSHI's settlement documentation for the precise condition.
The platform specifies how the 15-minute interval is measured (for example, rolling windows, fixed windows anchored to a clock, or a window determined by a specific timestamp). KALSHI's event page or rulebook will state whether any rolling or fixed schedule is used and how the start time is identified.
The event will settle to the exchange or aggregated price feed named by KALSHI in the market details. If the page does not list a feed, consult KALSHI's settlement policies or market-specific terms to identify the official reference.
Settlement follows KALSHI's disruption and error-handling rules. In many platforms, corrections, delayed prints, or exchange rollbacks can trigger an investigation or the application of alternate feeds or settlement windows. Refer to the platform's contingency and settlement policies for specifics.
Large orders or thin liquidity can cause price spikes that momentarily hit the target level; because this market focuses on a short interval and a precise price, such microstructure events materially increase the chance of a hit. Traders should consider order book depth and recent trading behavior on the designated reference venues when forming views.