| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $70,697.60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Bitcoin will meet a $70,697.60 price condition within a specified 15‑minute measurement for the listed event on KALSHI. It matters because minute‑level targets capture short bursts of volatility that can settle quickly and differ from daily or hourly markets.
Bitcoin is a highly liquid but volatile asset whose price can move sharply on macro news, exchange order flow, or derivatives-driven squeezes. Short-interval markets like a 15‑minute target are sensitive to intraday liquidity, exchange timestamping, and temporary spikes or dumps rather than longer-term trends. Historical context: minute-level outcomes have sometimes resolved on single-exchange prints or aggregated index values, so settlement mechanics matter a lot.
Prediction market odds reflect collective expectations about whether the event's settlement condition will be met at the specified measurement; they update in real time as new information arrives. To interpret them for this event, compare current market prices to recent intraday volatility and monitor the event's exact settlement rules and timestamp.
The outcome is determined by the platform's published settlement rule for this event—typically the reference Bitcoin price at a specified 15‑minute timestamp or within a defined 15‑minute window, using the platform's chosen data feed or exchange index. Consult the event's rule text on KALSHI to see the official source and timestamp.
Tie handling (whether equality counts as meeting the target) depends on the event's settlement language; some markets specify 'greater than or equal to' while others require 'strictly greater than.' Check the event rules for the precise inclusion criterion.
If the close time is listed as TBD, the platform has not yet set the official measurement timestamp; KALSHI will update the event page with the close time and settlement details before the market is active. Monitor the event page or platform notices for the official posting.
Zero volume indicates no trades have occurred yet on this market; liquidity may be low until the event is posted with a close time or until traders start taking positions. Volume can change rapidly once the market becomes active or as the target time approaches.
Platforms typically specify fallback procedures in the event rules—examples include using an alternative data source, pausing settlement until reliable data is available, or applying an aggregation across multiple feeds. The exact contingency for outages or anomalous prints will be in the event's official settlement provisions.