| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $69,391.25 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Bitcoin will meet a $69,391.25 price condition during a specified 15‑minute interval. It matters because short‑interval targets capture rapid price moves and are used by traders to hedge or speculate on intraday volatility.
Bitcoin is a highly liquid, global asset whose price is driven by a mix of macro news, on‑chain flows, order‑book dynamics, and derivatives positioning. Fifteen‑minute settlement windows are sensitive to short‑term liquidity events such as large market orders, exchange outages, or major news releases. Historical behavior shows that intraday spikes and rapid reversals are common, so outcomes can hinge on brief events within the window.
Market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations about whether the contract’s settlement criterion will be met during the defined 15‑minute window; consult the contract text for the exact settlement rule. Odds are dynamic and update as new information and order flow arrive.
The definitive answer is in the market’s settlement clause on the event page; common implementations either require the official reference price at a specified timestamp to be at/above the target, or an index/TWAP over the 15‑minute window to meet the threshold. Always read the contract text to know which measurement applies.
This market’s closing time is listed on the platform’s event page — it is currently TBD. The event page and platform notifications are the authoritative sources for the exact start and end timestamps of the 15‑minute window.
KALSHI specifies the designated price source in the event’s settlement rules; that source may be an aggregated index or a particular exchange feed. Check the event description and KALSHI’s rulebook for the named reference price.
Impact depends on the settlement method: a single‑timestamp measure could be decided by a momentary spike, while an average or TWAP will dilute brief anomalies. Review the settlement definition to understand how transitory moves are treated.
Whether a touch, cross, or closing value counts is specified in the market’s settlement criteria. Some contracts resolve on any intrawindow touch, others on the official reference price at a specific moment or an averaged value — consult the event terms for the exact rule.