| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $69,005.56 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Bitcoin will meet the specific price target of $69,005.56 within a defined 15-minute measurement period. It matters because short intraday moves can be driven by concentrated liquidity, news, and technical triggers, and markets like this let traders express views on those very short windows.
Bitcoin is known for high intraday volatility and can move several percent in minutes on low liquidity or news-driven flows. Minute-level contracts capture flash moves that longer-duration contracts may miss; traders who follow order book depth, derivatives funding, and exchange flows often engage with these short-duration outcomes. Historical context: sharp one- to fifteen-minute swings have produced both predictable technical breakouts and unpredictable spikes tied to exchange events or large orders.
Odds in this context reflect the market’s collective assessment that Bitcoin will hit the stated price within the 15-minute window; they update as new information (order flow, news, liquidity shifts) arrives. Treat the market price as a real-time, consensus view rather than a fixed forecast—it will change up to the point of settlement.
It means the market outcome is determined by whether Bitcoin meets the specified price within a single 15-minute measurement period. The event page or official rules will state when that 15-minute window begins and ends; consult the event timing details for the exact timestamp convention.
Settlement normally follows the data source and aggregation method specified in the event’s settlement rules on KALSHI; that could be a consolidated index or a specific exchange feed. Check the event’s settlement clause for the precise price source and timestamp standard used for determination.
Zero volume means the market has seen no trades yet and liquidity may be thin; bid/ask spreads can be wide and prices may move sharply once participants start trading. Consider that opening orders and market makers will influence early price discovery and that execution risk can be higher in low-volume markets.
Whether a single tick counts depends on the settlement definition (e.g., whether the rule requires the price to be at or above the target at any millisecond within the window or to close a subperiod). The event’s settlement specifications will define whether an instantaneous touch, a sustained print, or a specific quote type qualifies.
A 'TBD' close indicates the final window or calendar has not yet been published; KALSHI will update the event page with the scheduled start and close times and the settlement timeline. Watch for the event update or official notifications for the exact closing and settlement schedule.