| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $68,438.40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Bitcoin will hit the $68,438.40 target within a specified 15-minute measurement window; it matters because short intraday moves can be decisive for traders seeking to express views on immediate volatility and momentum.
Bitcoin exhibits frequent intraday volatility driven by news, liquidity conditions, and large order flows. Markets that focus on short fixed windows capture flash rallies or retracements that longer-horizon markets smooth over. Traders and hedgers use these instruments to take targeted exposure to near-term price action without holding longer-term directional risk.
Market odds reflect the collective market view about the likelihood that the market's settlement rule for this 15-minute window will be satisfied; because odds update continuously, they show current market sentiment rather than a static prediction.
Resolution depends on the market's settlement rules: the designated price feed, the 15-minute measurement interval, and the specific condition (e.g., touch, at-or-above, average) spelled out in the market description. Check KALSHI's official settlement clause for the precise trigger.
The listed close time is currently TBD; KALSHI will publish the market close and the exact timing of the 15-minute window on the market page. The measurement window and any scheduling details are defined in the market terms.
The market's rules specify the reference exchange(s) or index and timestamp rules used for settlement. Because exchanges differ, consult the market's settlement specification on KALSHI to see the exact data source and conventions.
It means no contracts have traded yet. Early markets with no trading can have thin order books and wide spreads, so displayed odds may move sharply once trading begins or new liquidity arrives.
That depends on the contract's trigger: if the rule counts any timestamped price at or above the target during the window, a momentary touch would qualify; if it requires a time-weighted average, close price, or a specific timestamp check, it may not. Confirm the exact definition in the market's terms.