| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Price: $68,410.05 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market resolves on whether Bitcoin's spot price will meet the $68,410.05 target during a specific 15‑minute observation window set by KALSHI. Short‑window price targets matter because they isolate intraday volatility and microstructure events that can create rapid, tradable moves.
Bitcoin is a highly liquid but volatile asset whose minute‑to‑minute price can be driven by order‑book dynamics, large on‑chain flows, derivatives positioning, and breaking news. Markets that reference a narrow time window (15 minutes) are more sensitive to exchange data source choice, timestamping, and transient spikes than longer‑duration contracts.
Market odds on this event reflect the collective market view about whether the KALSHI‑specified reference price will reach the stated level within the designated 15‑minute window; they incorporate public information, order flow, and traders' risk appetite and can change as new information arrives.
KALSHI will publish the precise start and end timestamps for the 15‑minute observation window on the market page and in the market rules; the market resolves based on the reference price recorded during that specified interval.
The event resolves using the reference price explicitly listed in the market's specifications on KALSHI (for example, a named exchange or an indexed composite); consult the market page or KALSHI's rulebook to see the exact data source.
Resolution follows the definition in the market's terms; typically it means the platform's reference price equals or exceeds the target at any timestamp within the observation window, but you should confirm the precise resolution language on the KALSHI market page.
KALSHI uses the specific reference feed named in the market documentation; if multiple feeds are available, the platform's published rules explain how conflicting quotes or feed outages are handled—check those rules for tie‑breaking and fallback procedures.
Monitor order‑book imbalance and visible liquidity on major exchanges, large wallet transfers to/from exchanges, open interest and funding rates in derivatives, any scheduled macro or crypto‑specific news, and sudden spikes in trading volume—these indicators often precede short, sharp intraday moves.