| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.5% | 9% | 5¢ | 15¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Above 1.5% | 99% | 85¢ | 97¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 92% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $201 | Trade → |
| Above 4.5% | 7% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $170 | Trade → |
| Above 3.5% | 8% | 0¢ | 8¢ | — | $83 | Trade → |
This KALSHI market asks which year‑over‑year growth band Brazil's GDP will fall into for Q4 2025; outcomes aggregate market participants' expectations and can move with new data and news. The result matters because the Q4 print signals the end‑of‑year momentum for Brazil's economy and can influence policy, investor positioning, and business planning.
Brazil's quarterly GDP reflects a mix of domestic demand, services activity, and commodity export performance; recent years have seen pronounced sensitivity to global commodity cycles, monetary policy shifts, and domestic fiscal choices. Seasonal patterns, statistical revisions, and one‑off events (weather, strikes, large crop harvests, or global demand shocks) can all materially affect a Q4 YoY comparison.
Prediction market prices represent the collective, real‑time view of traders about the eventual official Q4 2025 YoY reading, not an official forecast from statistical agencies. Use prices as a timely indicator to complement — not replace — analysis of underlying economic data and official releases.
The contract will settle on the official Q4 2025 YoY figure specified in the market's settlement rules; that is typically the national statistics agency's published quarterly GDP number. Check this market's terms for the exact data source and version used for settlement.
National statistical agencies generally publish quarterly GDP in the weeks to months after a quarter ends; exact timing varies by agency and calendar. The market's close date and time are listed on the market page (currently TBD), so monitor the page and the statistics agency's release calendar for precise timing.
Most prediction markets settle on the specific published figure identified in the contract at settlement; later revisions to GDP by the statistics agency typically do not change an already settled market. Confirm the settlement clause in this contract to understand how revisions are handled.
High‑frequency and monthly indicators are useful: industrial production, retail sales, services activity, employment/unemployment reports, PMI surveys, trade/export volumes and prices, and consumer/business confidence. Fiscal flows and large one‑off events (harvests, strikes, natural disasters) should also be monitored.
Key actors include the national statistics agency that publishes GDP, the Central Bank of Brazil (policy announcements and communication), the Ministry of Economy (fiscal measures and announcements), major commodity exporters (production and price news), and large private forecasting firms whose revisions and commentary can shift market expectations.