| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which pre-set unemployment-rate bucket will contain Brazil’s official unemployment rate for March 2026. The unemployment rate is a closely watched macro indicator that affects monetary and fiscal policy, market sentiment, and household welfare.
Brazil’s official unemployment rate is published by the national statistics agency and reflects changes in labor force participation, employment, and joblessness across the economy. Recent years have seen the labour market influenced by post-pandemic recovery dynamics, inflation and interest-rate cycles, commodity price swings, and periodic fiscal and labour-market policy changes. March outcomes can also be shaped by seasonal patterns and short-term events that affect hiring and hours worked.
Market odds represent the collective view of participants about which unemployment-rate range is most likely; they update as new information arrives and can provide a real-time signal of shifting expectations. Interpret odds as the market’s relative assessment across the available outcome buckets, not as a definitive forecast.
Brazil’s official unemployment rate is published by the national statistics agency; consult that agency’s official release calendar and website for the exact publication date and the full report.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive, pre-defined range (bucket) for the official March 2026 unemployment rate; the outcome that contains the officially published rate determines the settled result.
Watch recent GDP prints, industrial production, retail sales, formal employment series and payroll data, business confidence surveys, inflation readings and central bank policy signals, as well as commodity prices and major fiscal announcements.
Seasonal patterns and timing of large events can shift hiring, short-term service-sector activity and survey responses; the official series is often seasonally adjusted, but unusual timing or large temporary shocks can still influence the reported rate.
Pre-March fiscal measures (public hiring, transfers, tax changes), labour-market reforms, or central bank rate moves can alter labor demand and participation, prompting the market to revise which unemployment-range outcome is most likely.