| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which range the official Brazil unemployment rate for February 2026 will fall into; outcomes let traders express views on labor-market conditions. Unemployment outcomes are closely watched because they reflect economic health, consumer demand, and policy pressures.
Brazil's headline unemployment rate is published regularly by the official statistical agency and is influenced by cyclical growth, inflation, and structural labor-market features such as informality. Historical patterns show sensitivity to commodity cycles, fiscal and monetary policy, and large seasonal events that change hiring patterns.
Market odds reflect trader expectations about where the official February 2026 unemployment figure will land; they update as new data and news arrive and should be read as real-time sentiment rather than guarantees of the final report.
The official unemployment figure for a reference month is released by the designated statistical agency several weeks after that month ends; this market settles based on the official release named in the event rules, and will only finalize after that published figure is available.
The 10 outcomes correspond to non-overlapping ranges or bins for the reported unemployment rate; settlement follows the official published rate and the outcome whose range contains that figure is declared the winner per the event's settlement rules.
The market settles on the official statistic specified in the event description; typically this is the unemployment rate published by Brazil’s national statistics agency (the agency named in the event rules), so check the event page for the exact source used for settlement.
Key movers include monthly activity/GDP indicators, inflation data and the central bank’s rate decisions, major fiscal announcements or labor-market reforms, and high-frequency indicators such as retail, industrial production, and consumer confidence that shift expectations about hiring.
February is susceptible to seasonal effects—temporary tourism and event-related hiring, agricultural calendar shifts, and whether the survey reference week overlaps major holidays (e.g., Carnival)—all of which can bias the month-to-month reading relative to underlying labor-market trends.