| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.1 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.3 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.5 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.7 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.9 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.1 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which nominal GDP outcome Brazil will record for the 2026 calendar year and matters because the reported nominal size of the economy affects fiscal metrics, debt ratios, and investor and policy expectations.
Nominal GDP measures the value of goods and services at current prices, so it reflects both real activity and price changes (inflation and currency effects). Brazil's 2026 nominal GDP will be shaped by post‑pandemic recovery dynamics, commodity cycles, fiscal policy choices, and any statistical revisions or methodological updates from the national statistics agency.
Market prices reflect the consensus of traders about the likelihood of each predefined outcome and update as new information arrives; interpret them as real‑time collective forecasts, not guarantees of the official reported number.
Settlement will follow the official source specified in the KALSHI market contract — typically the national statistics agency (IBGE) annual nominal GDP release; check the market rules for the exact data series and version used for resolution.
Annual GDP figures are released according to the national statistics calendar, often with preliminary and later revised releases; the market will resolve according to the publication and revision policy stated in the contract, so monitor the KALSHI market page for the resolution date and any updates.
Each of the 12 outcomes maps to a specific value or range defined in the market listing; review the outcome labels and the contract’s settlement rules on the KALSHI page to see the exact boundaries and how a final reported value maps to a single winning outcome.
That depends on the version specified in the market contract (for example, first release vs final revised series); the contract’s resolution clause dictates whether subsequent revisions affect settlement, so consult that clause for this market.
Key developments include major fiscal announcements, large swings in commodity prices or export volumes, unexpected inflation or currency moves, significant domestic demand or investment news, and any methodological statements or timing changes from the statistics agency.