| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which YoY growth band Brazil's GDP will register for Q4 2026; outcomes let traders express views on near-term economic momentum in Brazil. The result matters for investors, policymakers, and businesses that track domestic demand, inflation pressures, and the macro outlook.
Brazil's growth in late 2026 will reflect a mix of domestic demand, commodity export performance, monetary and fiscal settings, and the political cycle around the 2026 elections. Historical volatility in commodity markets, exchange-rate moves, and occasional statistical revisions by IBGE mean quarter-to-quarter readings can surprise market expectations.
Market odds are an aggregation of participants' views about which predefined YoY growth range the official IBGE figure will fall into; they update in real time as new information arrives but are not guarantees of the official number.
The official quarterly GDP figures are published by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics); the event will settle to the official number specified in the market rules, so check IBGE releases and the market's settlement documentation for the exact source and release version.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific YoY growth range defined on the event page; on settlement the market uses the official IBGE value to identify which range contains that value. Verify the event description for precise bin definitions and which IBGE release (first estimate or later revision) is used for settlement.
The market settles to the official IBGE value specified by the market rules at the time of settlement; subsequent IBGE revisions after settlement do not retroactively change a settled market. If settlement is deferred until a later IBGE release, that will be stated on the event page.
Elections can influence economic activity through campaign-related public spending, shifts in business confidence, and uncertainty that affects consumption and investment; these effects can either boost or depress Q4 activity depending on policy announcements and market reactions.
Relevant indicators include monthly retail sales, industrial production, employment and payroll data, credit and loan growth, commodity price trends, FX moves, high-frequency mobility or consumption proxies, and any major fiscal or central-bank announcements ahead of the IBGE release.