| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which year‑over‑year growth band Brazil's GDP will fall into for Q1 2026; it matters because the reported figure is a key snapshot of the country's economic momentum and informs policy, investment, and trade decisions.
Brazil's growth in recent years has been shaped by the interplay of commodity cycles, domestic demand recovery after the pandemic, and macroeconomic policy actions. Short‑term outcomes depend on how consumption, investment, exports, and government spending performed in the quarter, while longer‑run prospects reflect productivity, structural reforms, and external conditions.
Prediction market odds aggregate the views of traders and update as new information arrives; they represent a market consensus about which growth band the official release will fall into, not an official forecast or model output.
The official national accounts for Brazil are published by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE); this market resolves to the IBGE's published Q1 2026 YoY GDP figure according to Kalshi's settlement rules.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined range of year‑over‑year GDP growth for Q1 2026; the outcome whose range contains the official IBGE release is the winning outcome. The event page lists the exact numeric bands.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the event page; markets like this generally remain open through the official IBGE release window for the quarter. IBGE typically publishes the first quarterly GDP estimate in the weeks after the quarter ends; check the event page and Kalshi rules for the exact settlement timing.
Monitor industrial production, retail sales, services activity, employment/unemployment data, trade balance, PMI readings, inflation (IPCA) and central bank minutes, plus commodity prices and the real/FX moves—these signals tend to lead quarterly GDP releases.
Major fiscal measures (changes to spending, transfers, or investment plans) and central bank actions or guidance that shift interest‑rate expectations can alter consumption, investment, inflation, and the exchange rate, prompting market participants to reprice which GDP band they expect the IBGE to report.