| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $67,500 or above | 91% | 91¢ | 94¢ | — | $117K | Trade → |
| $69,000 or above | 50% | 49¢ | 50¢ | — | $113K | Trade → |
| $68,000 or above | 85% | 83¢ | 86¢ | — | $97K | Trade → |
| $68,500 or above | 74% | 70¢ | 73¢ | — | $76K | Trade → |
| $67,000 or above | 96% | 96¢ | 98¢ | — | $65K | Trade → |
| $69,500 or above | 30% | 29¢ | 31¢ | — | $63K | Trade → |
| $66,000 or above | 98% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $61K | Trade → |
| $70,000 or above | 15% | 14¢ | 15¢ | — | $55K | Trade → |
| $66,500 or above | 97% | 97¢ | 98¢ | — | $51K | Trade → |
| $75,500 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $35K | Trade → |
| $71,000 or above | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| $72,000 or above | 4% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
| $70,500 or above | 7% | 4¢ | 7¢ | — | $29K | Trade → |
| $65,000 or above | 97% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| $60,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| $65,500 or above | 96% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| $57,500 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| $64,000 or above | 99% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| $64,500 or above | 98% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| $60,500 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| $63,500 or above | 99% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| $63,000 or above | 99% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| $71,500 or above | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| $62,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| $61,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| $74,500 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| $73,000 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| $72,500 or above | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| $62,500 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $73,500 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $77,000 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $61,500 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $59,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $59,500 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $74,000 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $75,000 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $300 | Trade → |
| $58,500 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $197 | Trade → |
| $76,500 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $50 | Trade → |
| $76,000 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $50 | Trade → |
| $58,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $33 | Trade → |
This market asks what Bitcoin's USD price will be at 5:00 PM EDT on March 9, 2026, using 40 discrete outcomes to allow granular positions. It matters because it captures market expectations for a precise timestamp and gives traders a way to express near-term views or hedge exposure.
Bitcoin is a highly traded but volatile digital asset whose minute-by-minute price reflects a mix of macroeconomic data, liquidity conditions, and crypto-specific news. Market structure has evolved with greater institutional participation and derivative markets, which can amplify moves but also add liquidity. Because prices can shift quickly around macro releases, exchange events, or large on-chain transfers, outcomes tied to a specific minute can move materially as that timestamp approaches.
Prices in this contract represent the aggregate judgment of traders about where Bitcoin will be at that exact timestamp and can change as new information arrives. Treat them as a real-time market signal, not a deterministic forecast.
The winning outcome is the one whose defined price interval contains the official reference price at 5:00 PM EDT on March 9, 2026; consult the market's outcome labels for exact interval boundaries and the contract terms on KALSHI for resolution specifics.
The market's contract terms on KALSHI specify the exact data source (exchange, consolidated index, or feed) used for settlement; check that page or the event's rules to confirm which reference is authoritative.
The market page lists the trading close time (currently TBD) and the settlement schedule; trading typically stops before resolution and settlement follows once the reference price at the timestamp is confirmed—check the event page for any updates to close and settlement timing.
Total volume is a snapshot of liquidity and interest in this specific event: higher volume generally means better ability to enter and exit positions, but effective liquidity depends on how that volume is distributed across the 40 outcomes and the order-book depth in each bucket.
Time-sensitive drivers include scheduled economic data or central bank comments, surprise regulatory or legal announcements, major exchange technical incidents or delistings, large transfers between custodial and exchange wallets, and sizable derivatives expiries or buy/sell waves from institutional traders.