| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $68,500 or above | 46% | 44¢ | 46¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| $68,000 or above | 59% | 55¢ | 56¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| $72,500 or above | 2% | 2¢ | 4¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| $66,000 or above | 86% | 83¢ | 85¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| $65,000 or above | 92% | 90¢ | 92¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| $67,500 or above | 65% | 65¢ | 66¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| $65,500 or above | 90% | 88¢ | 89¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| $69,000 or above | 38% | 36¢ | 37¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $69,500 or above | 25% | 25¢ | 26¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $67,000 or above | 76% | 75¢ | 76¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $71,500 or above | 9% | 5¢ | 6¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $72,000 or above | 3% | 3¢ | 5¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $64,000 or above | 94% | 94¢ | 97¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $70,000 or above | 19% | 18¢ | 19¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $66,500 or above | 84% | 81¢ | 82¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $64,500 or above | 93% | 93¢ | 96¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $63,500 or above | 96% | 96¢ | 98¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $71,000 or above | 11% | 9¢ | 10¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $70,500 or above | 14% | 13¢ | 14¢ | — | $823 | Trade → |
| $74,500 or above | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $738 | Trade → |
| $63,000 or above | 96% | 97¢ | 99¢ | — | $651 | Trade → |
| $60,500 or above | 99% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $485 | Trade → |
| $60,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $483 | Trade → |
| $62,500 or above | 99% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $465 | Trade → |
| $62,000 or above | 99% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $460 | Trade → |
| $59,500 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $459 | Trade → |
| $73,000 or above | 4% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $451 | Trade → |
| $59,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $436 | Trade → |
| $58,500 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $417 | Trade → |
| $61,500 or above | 99% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $385 | Trade → |
| $61,000 or above | 99% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $360 | Trade → |
| $74,000 or above | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $244 | Trade → |
| $73,500 or above | 3% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $218 | Trade → |
| $75,000 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $175 | Trade → |
| $76,000 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $94 | Trade → |
| $58,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $18 | Trade → |
| $56,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $57,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $57,000 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $75,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which price range Bitcoin will be trading in at exactly 5:00 PM EST on March 4, 2026; it lets participants express views about Bitcoin's value at that specific timestamp. The outcome matters for traders, hedgers, and observers wanting a time‑specific market signal.
Bitcoin's price by that date will reflect a mix of macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, institutional flows, and on‑chain fundamentals. The contract on Kalshi currently offers 40 discrete outcomes, so participants are choosing among many narrow price buckets rather than a simple up/down bet. Because outcomes are discrete and liquidity is split across buckets, market prices can change quickly as new information arrives.
Market odds represent how participants are trading each discrete price bucket and update in real time; treat them as the market's collective assessment at a moment in time rather than a guaranteed forecast. For settlement details, always consult the contract rules on the Kalshi market page.
It measures Bitcoin's market price at that exact timestamp according to the contract's specified data source; the winning outcome is the price bucket that contains the published settlement price. The contract page lists the authoritative source and any averaging or snapshot rules used for settlement.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined price range (bucket) shown on the market page. Those ranges are mutually exclusive and exhaustive—consult the contract to see the numeric bounds and whether endpoints are inclusive or exclusive.
The official trading close and settlement timeline are set on the Kalshi market page; settlement is based on the data at 5:00 PM EST on March 4, 2026 and may require the publication of an official price and any platform dispute/resolution window before final settlement.
Key potential catalysts include major regulatory announcements (e.g., agency rulings), headline macro releases (inflation, Fed announcements), large institutional product flows or ETF news, exchange outages/security incidents, and sudden large on‑chain transfers.
Total volume gives a snapshot of market activity but is dispersed across 40 buckets—liquidity will be deeper in buckets with concentrated interest and thin where activity is low. Check orderbook depth for the specific outcomes you care about to estimate slippage and execution cost.