| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $67,500 or above | 57% | 54¢ | 55¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
| $68,000 or above | 43% | 43¢ | 44¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| $66,000 or above | 84% | 82¢ | 84¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| $68,500 or above | 32% | 30¢ | 32¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| $70,000 or above | 12% | 11¢ | 12¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| $69,000 or above | 24% | 21¢ | 23¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| $69,500 or above | 18% | 17¢ | 18¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| $67,000 or above | 65% | 65¢ | 66¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| $65,500 or above | 89% | 89¢ | 90¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| $64,500 or above | 94% | 93¢ | 94¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| $65,000 or above | 91% | 89¢ | 92¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| $66,500 or above | 76% | 74¢ | 76¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| $70,500 or above | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| $71,000 or above | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| $72,000 or above | 4% | 2¢ | 4¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| $71,500 or above | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| $63,500 or above | 98% | 96¢ | 98¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| $73,000 or above | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| $64,000 or above | 97% | 95¢ | 96¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| $72,500 or above | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $62,500 or above | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $75,000 or above | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $62,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $74,000 or above | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $73,500 or above | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $61,500 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $61,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $63,000 or above | 98% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $994 | Trade → |
| $74,500 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $759 | Trade → |
| $59,500 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $572 | Trade → |
| $75,500 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $536 | Trade → |
| $60,500 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $178 | Trade → |
| $60,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $115 | Trade → |
| $56,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $83 | Trade → |
| $58,500 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $62 | Trade → |
| $56,500 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $61 | Trade → |
| $57,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $61 | Trade → |
| $57,500 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $53 | Trade → |
| $58,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $53 | Trade → |
| $59,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $52 | Trade → |
This market asks what the USD price of Bitcoin will be at exactly Mar 3, 2026 at 5:00 PM Eastern Time; it matters because discrete price snapshots are used to settle many short‑term trading decisions and can reflect immediate market sentiment and liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin is a highly liquid but volatile digital asset whose price is driven by a mix of on‑chain activity, macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and flows between exchanges and custody providers. Markets for short‑dated price outcomes like this one are often sensitive to near‑term news, derivatives expiries, and large institutional or retail order flow that change orderbooks within minutes or seconds.
Prediction market odds summarize traders' collective view about which price interval will contain the official settlement price; interpret them as a real‑time snapshot of market consensus and liquidity rather than a fixed forecast, and always refer to the event's official resolution rules for the specific settlement mechanism.
Settlement is based on the Bitcoin price at Mar 3, 2026 at 5:00 PM Eastern Time as defined on the event page; the official price source and how that instant is sampled (e.g., last trade, midpoint, aggregate) are specified in the event's resolution rules — check the KALSHI event description for that detail.
The 40 outcomes correspond to the specific price intervals listed on the event page; the outcome whose interval contains the official settlement price at the timestamp is the winning outcome, with any rounding or tie‑breaking handled according to the platform's stated resolution rules.
Opening and closing times are set by the event listing; because the market's close is listed as TBD, monitor the event page for updates — trading typically remains open until the platform declares the official market close or suspension in accordance with its rules.
If the designated reference feed is unavailable, the platform's extraordinary resolution policy applies — typically this means using an alternative specified source, an aggregated feed, or a defined fallback procedure; consult KALSHI's published resolution and dispute rules for the exact process.
Short windows before settlement can be especially influential: large market orders, concentrated liquidity shifts, derivative expiries, or breaking news can move the live price and therefore change which interval contains the official snapshot, so outcomes can hinge on orderflow and events occurring immediately prior to the timestamp.