| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $71,000 or above | 36% | 34¢ | 35¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| $70,500 or above | 45% | 43¢ | 45¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| $69,000 or above | 73% | 73¢ | 75¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| $71,500 or above | 25% | 25¢ | 26¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| $70,000 or above | 57% | 54¢ | 57¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| $72,000 or above | 18% | 17¢ | 19¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| $69,500 or above | 68% | 64¢ | 66¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $73,000 or above | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $67,500 or above | 91% | 90¢ | 91¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $68,500 or above | 82% | 80¢ | 81¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $73,500 or above | 4% | 5¢ | 6¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $72,500 or above | 12% | 12¢ | 13¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $68,000 or above | 87% | 85¢ | 87¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $67,000 or above | 95% | 92¢ | 94¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $66,000 or above | 95% | 95¢ | 98¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $74,000 or above | 5% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $995 | Trade → |
| $75,000 or above | 3% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $921 | Trade → |
| $64,500 or above | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $671 | Trade → |
| $65,500 or above | 95% | 97¢ | 99¢ | — | $359 | Trade → |
| $66,500 or above | 95% | 94¢ | 95¢ | — | $276 | Trade → |
| $65,000 or above | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $200 | Trade → |
| $74,500 or above | 3% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $175 | Trade → |
| $64,000 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $106 | Trade → |
| $76,000 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $98 | Trade → |
| $78,500 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1 | Trade → |
| $79,000 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1 | Trade → |
| $78,000 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1 | Trade → |
| $59,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $61,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $60,000 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $61,000 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $63,000 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $76,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $63,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $77,000 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $62,000 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $62,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $75,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $77,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $60,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the USD price of Bitcoin will be precisely at 5:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on March 12, 2026. It matters because it captures collective market expectations about Bitcoin at a specific timestamp and can be used for short-term hedging or trading around that moment.
Bitcoin is a globally traded, highly liquid but volatile digital asset whose price reflects macroeconomic conditions, market liquidity, on‑chain activity, and regulatory developments. This event (hosted on KALSHI) offers 40 mutually exclusive outcomes representing different price brackets or points for that specific timestamp; note the market close time is listed as TBD, so watch the event page for updates.
Market odds on this event represent the aggregated, real‑time beliefs of traders about Bitcoin's price at that exact moment; they move as new information arrives and should be interpreted as a market signal, not a guarantee of the future price.
The event's settlement description on the KALSHI page specifies the definitive reference (for example, a particular exchange, an aggregated index, or the last trade at the timestamp). Always consult the event's settlement rules to see which source or methodology will be used.
On March 12, 2026 the U.S. is observing daylight saving time, so 5:00 PM EDT corresponds to 21:00 UTC. Convert from UTC to your local zone accordingly and verify daylight saving adjustments for your location.
Outcomes are usually arranged as adjacent price intervals or discrete price points that cover a full range of possible BTC/USD values; only the single outcome whose interval contains the official reference price (or matches the specified point) at 5pm EDT will settle as the winning outcome. Review the labels, boundaries, and tick sizes on the event page to understand the mapping.
Platforms have contingency and force‑majeure clauses that define fallback procedures—common responses include delaying settlement, using an alternative designated reference, or applying an arbitration protocol. Check KALSHI's event rules and dispute procedures for the precise policies that will govern this market.
Monitor scheduled macroeconomic releases and central‑bank commentary, large exchange flows and custody movements, on‑chain metrics (whale transfers, exchange balance changes), regulatory announcements, and real‑time order‑book liquidity; because this market fixes to a single timestamp, immediate order flow and liquidity conditions around 5pm EDT can have an outsized impact.