| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70,000 or above | 56% | 53¢ | 56¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
| $69,500 or above | 66% | 63¢ | 66¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| $65,000 or above | 98% | 97¢ | 99¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| $70,500 or above | 44% | 41¢ | 44¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $71,000 or above | 34% | 32¢ | 33¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $69,000 or above | 72% | 70¢ | 72¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $71,500 or above | 25% | 22¢ | 25¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $72,000 or above | 16% | 16¢ | 18¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $68,500 or above | 77% | 78¢ | 81¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $68,000 or above | 83% | 83¢ | 86¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $66,500 or above | 96% | 93¢ | 95¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $67,500 or above | 87% | 87¢ | 88¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $73,000 or above | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $67,000 or above | 90% | 90¢ | 92¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $65,500 or above | 96% | 95¢ | 96¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $63,500 or above | 98% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $74,000 or above | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $72,500 or above | 12% | 11¢ | 13¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $64,000 or above | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $66,000 or above | 94% | 94¢ | 97¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $64,500 or above | 98% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $75,500 or above | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $906 | Trade → |
| $73,500 or above | 6% | 4¢ | 6¢ | — | $383 | Trade → |
| $76,000 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $187 | Trade → |
| $75,000 or above | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $93 | Trade → |
| $74,500 or above | 3% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $20 | Trade → |
| $79,500 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10 | Trade → |
| $77,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $76,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $79,000 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $77,000 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $62,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $80,000 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $78,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $61,000 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $61,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $62,000 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $60,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $78,000 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $63,000 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the USD price of Bitcoin will be at 5:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on March 11, 2026. It matters because traders use aggregated market prices to express expectations about short-term crypto price outcomes and to hedge or speculate around that specific timestamp.
Bitcoin is a globally traded, highly liquid but volatile digital asset whose price is set continuously across many exchanges. Market pricing around a fixed future timestamp incorporates macroeconomic data, regulatory news, exchange flow and on-chain signals that occur in the days and hours leading up to resolution. This specific market is structured into 40 discrete outcome buckets that cover different price ranges at the resolution time.
Prediction market odds are an aggregation of participant expectations across those 40 price-range outcomes; movement in odds reflects changing information, sentiment, and liquidity rather than a single 'true' forecast. Use the odds as a dynamic signal of market consensus while accounting for noise and potential thin liquidity in particular buckets.
The market resolves using the Bitcoin price at 5:00 PM EDT on March 11, 2026 per the contract's resolution rules. Check the event page for the authoritative specification of the timestamp and any averaging window used around that time.
The 40 outcomes are discrete, labeled price-range buckets that together span a range of possible Bitcoin USD prices at the resolution timestamp. Each outcome corresponds to one bucket; consult the event's outcome labels on the platform to see the exact price intervals.
KALSHI's published resolution policy defines contingency procedures—such as alternate data sources, a fallback averaging window, or arbitration—if the primary feed is unavailable. Refer to the event's terms and the platform's resolution rules for the exact fallback hierarchy.
'Closes: TBD' indicates the official trading close time has not yet been announced; trading is typically allowed until the platform sets and publishes a closing time or until the event resolves. Monitor the event page and platform notifications for the announced close.
Likely drivers include scheduled macroeconomic releases (central bank communications, inflation or employment data), major crypto regulatory or legal developments, large exchange flows or custody transfers, and any exchange outages or market disruptions occurring in the 24–72 hours before the snapshot.