| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike more than 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintain current rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut more than 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks how the Bank of Russia will set its policy rate in March; the outcome matters because the central bank rate shapes borrowing costs, inflation expectations, and currency and asset-market reactions in Russia and beyond.
The Bank of Russia decides its policy rate at scheduled monetary policy meetings and by issuing an official statement and press release; its choices reflect the trade-off between stabilizing inflation and supporting financial stability in an economy sensitive to commodity prices and external flows. Recent years have seen decisions influenced by inflation dynamics, exchange-rate pressures, oil-price swings, and fiscal developments, so the March decision will be read in that broader context.
Market odds on this page represent the consensus view of traders about which specific rate outcome is most likely given current information; they update as new data, central bank communications, and external shocks arrive. Use them as a real-time aggregation of expectations, not as a definitive forecast or policy recommendation.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific policy-rate level or rate-change option listed on the market page; the market resolves to the outcome that matches the official decision published by the Bank of Russia at the time of its March announcement.
Resolution typically occurs after the Bank of Russia publishes its official rate decision and accompanying statement; if the bank changes its usual timing or issues supplementary materials, the market follows the event's published resolution rules, so check the market page for the exact resolution mechanics.
Key movers are fresh consumer-price and producer-price readings, wage and employment releases, GDP or activity surprises, abrupt oil-price shocks, episodes of ruble volatility or capital-flow news, and any unexpected fiscal announcements that alter financing needs.
The decision is made by the Bank of Russia's governing body (its board/monetary policy committee) and the governor; traders monitor official press releases, the post-decision statement, minutes (if published), and speeches by the governor and board members for guidance on reaction functions and future policy intentions.
Markets tend to react quickly to any deviation between the decision and prior guidance or recent data surprises: unexpected tightening or easing shifts short-term rates, currency positions, and yield curves, while clear forward guidance or an emphasis on either inflation or financial-stability risks can alter expectations for subsequent meetings.