| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut more than 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintain current rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike more than 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the Bank of Russia will decide for its policy rate in April. The decision matters because it shapes borrowing costs, inflation expectations, the ruble, and broader financial conditions in Russia and linked markets.
The Bank of Russia's key rate is its primary tool for achieving the statutory inflation objective and preserving financial stability. Decisions reflect a balance between inflation developments, exchange rate dynamics, oil revenue and external pressures, and the central bank's assessment of the economic outlook; outcomes are announced after a scheduled Board meeting with a published statement and usually supporting materials. Historical patterns show the Bank responds to persistent inflation surprises and large currency moves, while also signalling policy direction through forward guidance.
Market prices here represent the aggregate expectations of participants about the April policy outcome and update as new information arrives. Treat them as a real-time gauge of market sentiment that complements, but does not replace, analysis of fundamentals and official communications.
The Bank of Russia's Board of Directors makes the policy-rate decision; the outcome is announced in an official press release and policy statement, typically issued at the end of the Board meeting and sometimes accompanied by a press conference or monetary policy report.
Each listed outcome corresponds to a specific rate level or category defined on the market page; participants should consult the market description to see how those seven discrete outcomes map to the central bank's announced rate or categorical actions (e.g., hold, raise, cut).
Trading close and settlement timing are set by the platform hosting the market; many markets close shortly before or at the time of the official announcement so that settlement is based on the published decision—check the market page for the exact close time and settlement rules.
Key movers include the latest CPI and core inflation reports, industrial and retail data, FX volatility and oil-price swings, major fiscal announcements, and any public speeches from central-bank officials in the days leading up to the meeting.
Review recent monetary policy statements, minutes, and the central bank's inflation and economic projections to infer its policy bias; combine that with incoming data and market indicators (exchange rate, yields) to judge whether the Bank is more likely to maintain, tighten, or loosen policy ahead of the April decision.