| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut more than 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintain current rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike more than 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to forecast the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) monetary policy decision at its May meeting. The outcome matters because Banxico's rate decision influences inflation expectations, borrowing costs, exchange-rate dynamics and broader financial conditions in Mexico.
Banxico meets on a preannounced calendar and issues a policy decision accompanied by a press release and, sometimes, a press conference and minutes; markets interpret both the rate action and the accompanying language. Recent policy debates have centered on inflation persistence, core price pressures, and the interaction of domestic conditions with global monetary policy and exchange-rate movements. Traders also watch how external factors, such as U.S. monetary policy and commodity prices, feed into Mexico's inflation and capital flows.
Odds in this market reflect the collective expectations about which specific rate level or range Banxico will announce in May and update as new data and communications arrive. They are a real-time signal of market views, not a guarantee of the official outcome.
Banxico announces policy on the date in its official meeting calendar; the central bank's press release and any accompanying statements determine the official decision. This prediction market will follow the platform's published schedule for trading and resolution—participants should monitor the market page for the platform's closing time and any platform-specific notices since the market's close time is listed as TBD.
Each of the seven outcomes corresponds to a distinct policy-rate level or predefined range that Banxico could announce at its May meeting. The outcome that resolves will be the one that matches the official policy rate or range reported in Banxico's published decision according to the platform's resolution rules; check the market description for the exact mapping between outcomes and rate levels.
Resolution is based on Banxico's official publications—primarily the press release that states the policy rate and any official numerical reference rate cited by the bank. If ambiguity arises, the platform's market rules specify which official document or timestamp is authoritative, so consult those rules and the market page.
Key domestic indicators include recent CPI reports (headline and core), leading inflation indicators, monthly activity or IP data, labor-market statistics, and manufacturing/PMI signals. Also monitor external inputs such as U.S. inflation and labor reports, major central-bank meetings (especially the Fed), and commodity prices (notably oil), since these can change the external backdrop for Banxico's decision.
Monetary policy is set by Banxico's board of governors (the Monetary Policy Board) led by the governor. Public communications—board minutes, the post-decision statement, the governor's speeches and any press conference—provide the rationale and forward guidance that shape market expectations; shifts in tone, explicit concerns about inflation or growth, or evidence of split votes can materially influence this market.