| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut more than 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintain current rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike more than 50bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what interest rate outcome the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will announce at its March policy decision; that announcement influences inflation expectations, the peso, and borrowing costs. The market on Kalshi offers seven mutually exclusive outcomes and has seen $34,824 in volume traded.
Banco de México sets Mexico's benchmark policy rate at regularly scheduled meetings and publishes a decision and accompanying statement explaining its view. Recent cycles have required balancing domestic inflation trends, economic growth, fiscal policy, and external conditions such as U.S. monetary policy and exchange rate moves.
Prediction market prices summarize how traders collectively expect the March decision to land and update as new data arrive; they are a real‑time measure of market sentiment, not a guarantee of the outcome.
Settlement will be based on Banxico's official March policy announcement; Kalshi posts closing and settlement timing on the market page once the platform confirms the official source and timing. Traders should watch the market page and official Banxico communications for updates.
The seven outcomes represent the distinct, mutually exclusive rate outcomes or ranges as defined in the Kalshi market description for the March Banxico decision. Only the outcome that matches the official published decision will settle.
Key releases include Mexico's CPI (headline and core), periodic economic activity and employment reports, and major external data such as U.S. inflation or Fed communications; each can shift expectations for Banxico's decision.
Banxico's Governing Board (Junta de Gobierno) votes on the policy rate and issues an official decision and statement; minutes and sometimes a press conference or additional commentary follow, and those documents are the reference for markets.
An unscheduled move or date change would alter the underlying facts the market reflects; Kalshi will follow its published rules to determine settlement based on Banxico's official communications, and traders should monitor platform notices for any adjustments to timing or settlement criteria.