| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut more than 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 1-25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintain current rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 1-25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike more than 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks how the Bank of Korea will set its policy rate in April; outcomes matter because the decision affects borrowing costs, exchange rates, and financial markets in South Korea and the region.
The Bank of Korea (BOK) meets regularly to set policy via its Monetary Policy Board; April is part of the central bank's ongoing response to recent domestic inflation dynamics, economic growth signals, and external shocks. Historical cycles of tightening or easing, plus recent domestic and global economic data, provide context for how the BOK may lean at this meeting.
Market prices reflect participants' collective expectations about the official April decision and update in real time as new information arrives; interpret them as a snapshot of evolving market views rather than a fixed forecast.
The market's close and settlement are determined by the trading platform (KALSHI) and typically align with the official BOK announcement time or a clearly stated cutoff on the market page; check the platform for the definitive close time and settlement rules, since this event currently shows 'TBD' for closing.
The five discrete outcomes correspond to specific policy decision possibilities defined on the market page (for example, different policy rate steps or a hold outcome); read each outcome's text on the platform to see which exact official policy level or decision it maps to before trading.
The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea is responsible for setting the policy rate; official decisions and accompanying statements are published on the BOK website and announced via press releases and a post-meeting statement.
Key drivers include domestic CPI and core inflation reports, GDP and employment data, industrial output and retail sales, trade figures and the won exchange rate, plus updates from major central banks and any material shifts in commodity prices or geopolitical risk that affect demand or inflation expectations.
A surprise decision typically causes rapid repricing in the market; final settlement will be based on the official BOK announcement and the platform's settlement rules, so traders should review KALSHI's dispute and settlement procedures and be prepared for increased volatility around the release.