| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market lets traders take positions on the Bank of Canada’s policy rate decision in March. It matters because the BoC decision affects borrowing costs, financial markets, and the Canadian economy.
The Bank of Canada’s Governing Council meets regularly to set the policy interest rate in light of inflation, employment, and economic growth. March is one of the scheduled policy dates when markets and economists watch incoming domestic data and global developments to update expectations.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations about which of the defined outcomes will occur at the official announcement. Prices should be interpreted as the market’s current consensus view, subject to change as new information arrives.
Each outcome corresponds to a specifically defined policy-rate result or range as posted on the market page. Compare the outcome definitions on the event page to the official BoC announcement to understand which outcome will settle. Market prices reflect collective expectations about which of those predefined outcomes will be realized.
The market close time is set by the event page and may be listed as TBD until finalized. Many markets close shortly before or at the time of the official announcement; check the event page for the exact close time and any updates from the platform.
Key items include the latest CPI and core inflation reports, employment and wage data, GDP or monthly activity indicators, retail and housing data, and any speeches or press releases from the Governor. International data and central bank actions can also influence expectations.
The Bank of Canada’s Governing Council, led by the Governor, sets the policy rate. Traders focus on the statement language, forward guidance, summary of economic projections, and any press conference remarks that signal the Council’s assessment of inflation risks and the likely path of policy.
Settlement follows the official BoC announcement and any stated settlement rules on the event page. If the official communication is ambiguous or an unexpected interim statement is released, the platform’s published settlement procedures determine which official figure or statement is used to resolve the market.