| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the average volume of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will be on April 1, 2026; it matters because the strait is a strategic maritime chokepoint whose traffic levels affect energy flows, shipping costs, and geopolitical risk.
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and historically carries a large share of crude oil and tanker transits as well as commercial shipping. Traffic through the strait is sensitive to regional security incidents, sanctions, global energy demand, and routing decisions by shipping companies and insurers.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about the expected average traffic level on the settlement date; they update as new information arrives but should be read as probabilistic signals rather than definitive forecasts.
The market measures the average number of qualifying vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on April 1, 2026 according to the contract's settlement definition; consult the market page for the precise inclusion criteria (vessel types, direction, and time window).
Settlement will follow the official source specified on the Kalshi contract page; Kalshi commonly relies on AIS-based ship-tracking datasets or other authoritative maritime statistics listed in the contract terms—check the event page for the exact provider and methodology.
The nine outcomes partition the possible range of average traffic into discrete bins or thresholds specific to this market; the market page shows the exact boundaries for each outcome and which traffic counts correspond to each bin.
Promptly: significant security incidents, public advisories, or insurance disruptions are likely to shift trader expectations and prices quickly, especially as AIS signals, news reports, and operator advisories become available in real time.
The market page will show the official trading close time and settlement schedule; resolution typically occurs after the authoritative data for April 1 is published and validated according to Kalshi's stated settlement rules.