| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) labour force release will report the unemployment rate for March 2026. The result matters because the unemployment rate is closely watched by investors, policymakers, and businesses as an indicator of labour market health and monetary policy direction.
Australia's unemployment rate is derived from the ABS monthly Labour Force Survey, which captures employment, unemployment and participation across the economy. Recent years have seen shifts driven by domestic demand, population and migration flows, sectoral hiring patterns, and Reserve Bank policy; those broader trends provide context for interpreting the March 2026 reading. The March release will reflect developments up to and including that month, including any seasonal adjustments the ABS applies.
Prediction market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations about the ABS-reported result and will move as participants incorporate new data and news. Use prices as a real-time, market-implied signal rather than a definitive forecast; they update with incoming economic releases, policy announcements, and large labour market events.
This market outcome is based on the unemployment rate published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics for March 2026; settlement will occur after the ABS publishes that monthly labour force release and any platform-specific verification steps are completed.
The event uses the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Labour Force Survey release for March 2026 as the authoritative source for the unemployment rate.
Examine recent monthly and trend unemployment series, participation and labour force growth, full- versus part-time employment changes, sectoral employment trends, and relevant migration statistics to understand momentum heading into March 2026.
The ABS publishes seasonally adjusted, trend and original series; seasonal adjustment can change the month-to-month headline, and the ABS occasionally revises historical data, so traders should consider alternative series and the possibility of revisions when assessing the market.
Key potential movers include Reserve Bank announcements, GDP and labour-related releases (wages, job vacancies), major corporate hiring or layoff news, significant changes to migration policy, and large natural or economic shocks that affect employment activity.